Who Gains from Nickel Downstreaming? Distributional Justice and Local Economic Inclusion in Indonesia’s Morowali Industrial Zone

Abstract

Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming policy has become a central component of its industrialization strategy, seeking to increase domestic value added, attract investment, and strengthen the country’s position in global mineral supply chains. However, aggregate economic gains do not necessarily imply equitable distribution among local communities. This study examines who benefits from nickel downstreaming in Morowali Industrial Zone and evaluates the extent of local economic inclusion generated by industrial development. Using a case-study approach, the research combines policy and regulatory analysis with secondary evidence concerning employment, investment, local business participation, and regional economic development. The analysis applies a distributional justice framework to distinguish between benefits captured by investors, government institutions, workers, local enterprises, and surrounding communities. Particular attention is given to access to employment and business opportunities for local residents and the potential exclusion of smaller economic actors from industrial value chains. The study argues that the success of downstreaming should not be measured solely through investment inflows, export value, or regional output, but also through the distribution of economic opportunities and risks. The study contributes to the literature on resource-based industrialization by introducing a justice-oriented assessment of Indonesia’s downstreaming strategy. It offers policy implications for strengthening local economic participation within mineral-based industrial development.